Weekly Investment Insights
1Q26 Earnings Season: Can Growth Extend Beyond Big Tech?
Key Takeaways:
- 1Q26 earnings season kicks off.
- Financials deliver strong earnings thus far.
- Semiconductors still driving earnings growth.
- “Mag 7” outweighs other 493 companies.
- Will we hear about a war impact?
What to Expect in 1Q26 Earnings Season?
Last week kicked off the unofficial start to 1Q26 earnings season with several financial firms issuing earnings results (e.g., Bank of America, JPMorgan, Citigroup, U.S. Bancorp). According to Factset1, S&P 500 earnings are expected to have grown 13.2% (YoY) in 1Q26, the sixth straight quarter of double-digit earnings growth. Over the past twenty years, analysts have typically reduced quarterly earnings growth estimates by ~4% during the quarter. However, during 1Q26 analysts increased their estimate for 1Q26 earnings by 0.4% since the start of the year, marking the third straight quarter that earnings were revised higher. In this weekly insights, we provide a preview of what investors may see this earnings season and what we would like to hear from companies.
Financials kick off with strong earnings:
According to Bloomberg, we have received 22 of the 80 financial firms in the S&P 500 Index thus far. Of the 22 companies, 20 of them have beat earnings estimates. The biggest upside surprises came from Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, Bank of New York, JPMorgan and Truist Financial. Earnings are expected to be driven by increased trading activity as market volatility has accelerated and higher investment banking fees with M&A rebounding.
Tech and semiconductors dominate earnings growth:
The Info Tech sector is expected to report the highest earnings growth rate of all 11 S&P 500 sectors (+45% YoY). The strength in tech is primarily driven by semiconductor earnings growth which is expected to rise 95% (YoY). If this earnings growth was excluded from the Info Tech sector, the sector would see earnings growth of 20% (compared to 45% estimate).
“Mag 7” still driver of earnings growth for the Index:
According to Factset1, estimated earnings growth for the “Mag 7” stocks is 23% (YoY). That is compared to ~10% (YoY) earnings growth for the other 493 companies. However, it is primarily driven by one company (i.e. NVIDIA). If NVIDIA were excluded from the “Mag 7” stocks, their earnings growth would be 6% (compared to 23% YoY).
What to expect from energy earnings? On average, crude oil was only ~1% higher in 1Q26 vs. 1Q25. As a result, the energy sector is not going to be boosted by higher prices. Instead, energy earnings are expected to be the weakest of all 11 sectors (-13% YoY). This is due to refinery headwinds, less volume due to the war and volatile markets which impacted hedging.
The Bottom Line:
According to FactSet1, earnings are expected to grow 18% (YoY) in 2026, which would mark the fourth consecutive year of double digit earnings growth. We want to highlight that it is still highly dependent on the tech sector. This earnings season, we will be focusing outside of tech to see the impact companies are feeling due to the war (e.g., supply chain disruption, high oil costs). Especially how they are managing it (margin compression or passing on higher prices). This will tell us the probability of the Index posting the fourth consecutive year of double digit earnings growth.
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Your Economic and Market Detailed Recaps
- Home sales slow as rates and prices rise.
- Small business optimism at 11-month low.
- Inflation comes in lighter than expected.
- Equities hit record highs on hopes around Iran peace.
- Inflation expectations drop and drive yields lower.
- Crude oil prices drop sharply on reopening of Strait.
Weekly Economic Recap — Housing struggles; Small business sentiment weakens
Existing home sales fell more than expected in March (-3.6% vs. -0.7% MoM est) to a nine month low. All four major regions declined but it was led by the northeast which saw the biggest monthly decline since March 2022. The median price of an existing home rose to a four month high ($408,800).
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index dropped sharply in March to an 11 month low. The weakness was broad with small business owners less optimistic about earnings, inventories, credit conditions and hiring. In contrast, those expecting higher selling prices rose for the month.
Inflation as measured by the Producer Price Index came in weaker than expected (+0.5% MoM vs 1.1% est). Intermediate prices (the prices for goods/services used as inputs in production) rose by the most since 2022. Energy was a major driver for the increase but we also saw pressure in transportation/ warehousing services.
The NAHB Housing Market Index dropped to a seven month low in April. All three components of the survey declined but it was led by sentiment on the future of the housing market. Homebuilders noted that the rise in oil prices is contributing to higher prices of materials and increased uncertainty.
Weekly Market Recap — Optimism about Strait of Hormuz openings drives stocks higher
Equities:
The MSCI AC World Index rallied for the third consecutive week and many major indices reached fresh new record highs (e.g., S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russell 1000 Value) on news that the Strait of Hormuz would be opening. U.S. equities outperformed both international and emerging market equities. Technology led the gains in the U.S. with the Nasdaq and Russell 1000 Growth Index outperforming.
Fixed Income:
The Bloomberg Aggregate Index rallied for the third consecutive week as oil prices dropped sharply and inflation expectations moved lower. Within the fixed income market, the biggest gainers were emerging market bonds, high yield and investment grade credit.
Commodities/FX:
The Bloomberg Commodity Index declined for the second consecutive week as tensions with Iran eased. Crude oil prices have posted the worst back to back weekly declines since the pandemic as hopes rose that oil could move through the Strait of Hormuz.
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Data is as of April 2026.
Source: FactSet Research Systems, Verdence Capital Advisors

